Ray Dalio says the U.S. faces a particularly risky period between 2026 and 2028 as fiscal deficits, monetary pressures, and geopolitical tensions converge. He points to heavy government spending and rising Treasury yields as signs of growing vulnerability.
Quick Read - Ray Dalio warns that the 2026-2028 period presents heightened vulnerability for the US due to converging fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical pressures: the government spends $7 trillion while taking in $5 trillion (40% overspending), the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4% with compressed spreads limiting Fed flexibility, and foreign buyers—particularly China—are reducing demand for US debt amid sanctions concerns and trade imbalances.